21st Century Guerrilla Warfare

Despite its air force and navy have been devastated, Iran is not only resisting firmly but is also causing severe damage to Trump and the global economy.

Faced with the evident military superiority of the United States and Israel, Iran has created the 21st-century guerrilla warfare.

Using swarms of low-cost and rapidly manufactured drones, Iran attacks vulnerable points such as oil facilities and fuel tankers.

Iran understands that while it cannot shoot down a sophisticated F-35 fighter jet, it can checkmate the global economy by suffocating the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

The message is clear: If the U.S. and Israel continue to harm me, I will continue to harm the global economy.

With oil prices at $140, inflation has begun to grow out of control, and the threat of a global recession is nearer.

Consequently, consumers in the U.S. and Europe are already feeling the impact of the war in their pockets, pressuring their governments to bring it to an end.

While Trump destroys key assets of the theocratic regime, Iran’s drones destroy Trump’s popularity, placing him under pressure from both his own citizens and his allies.

However, the interests of China, Russia, and Israel also intervene, each deploying their own strategy:

Israel: Survival and the Nuclear Front

For Israel, the war is existential. Its strategy focuses on the total dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program (recently attacking Natanz).

It has also launched a limited ground offensive in southern Lebanon to neutralize Hezbollah.

Israel seeks to ensure the conflict does not end until the Iranian regime loses its ability to project regional power.

China: The Cautious Balance

China depends critically on Middle Eastern oil. Therefore, it pressures Iran to allow the passage of Chinese ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, it is utilizing its strategic oil reserves to prevent the collapse of its industry and seeks to position itself as the only mediator capable of speaking with all parties.

On one hand, it welcomes the fact that the U.S. is being worn down economically and militarily.

On the other, access to oil will be of little use if a prolonged war triggers a global recession that limits the sale of Chinese industrial products.

Russia: The Opportunistic Beneficiary

Moscow has found a relief in this war. While the world suffers from high prices, Russia is selling its oil at record levels, obtaining resources for its own war in Ukraine.

It supports Iran diplomatically and with satellite data but avoids direct military involvement that would escalate the conflict.

Moscow celebrates as interceptor missiles are diverted from Ukraine to Iran.

The longer the war in Iran lasts, the fewer resources and political will the West will have to support Kyiv.

Conclusion

The conflict in Iran makes it clear that military superiority is not enough to win a war in the 21st century.

The skill to use low-cost weapons to strike points that damage the global economy has allowed Iran to resist and erode Trump’s popularity.